2025 Global Poultry and Meat Production & Trade Outlook: Supply-Demand Restructuring Amid Moderate Growth

The "Global Food Outlook Report" released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in June 2025 indicates that the global meat market will exhibit a pattern of "moderate production growth, slowing trade expansion, and rising price volatility" this year. Poultry meat, driven by its price advantage, will become the core driver of market growth, while factors such as animal diseases and geopolitics will continue to disrupt the global supply chain.

I. Slowing Production Growth, Poultry as the Growth Engine

The report forecasts that global total meat production will reach 380.5 million tons (on a carcass weight basis) in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The growth rate is significantly slower than in recent years, mainly dragged down by the decline in beef production. Sub-sectors show differentiated trends:

1) Poultry leads steadily: Production is expected to climb steadily, exceeding pork output by approximately 27.14 million tons, with consumption also surpassing pork by 26.46 million tons, accounting for 40% of global meat consumption. Despite the ongoing outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and restricted supply of breeding poultry, strong market demand and considerable profit margins support sustained production growth.

2) Pork and lamb see modest growth: Global pork production will increase slightly due to moderate herd expansion. China, the world's largest pork producer (accounting for nearly 50% of global output), will maintain relatively stable production affected by low production profit margins. Lamb production will rise marginally, as the decline in sheep herds in Oceania is offset by growth in other regions.

3) Beef production contracts: Major producers such as Brazil and the United States have experienced a decline in cattle herds due to high slaughter volumes in recent years. Currently, they are retaining cattle to rebuild herds, and the reduced beef cattle inventory limits the slaughter rate, leading to an expected decline in global beef production.

II. Moderate Trade Expansion, Regional Flows Disrupted by Multiple Factors

Global meat trade volume is projected to grow by 1.3% to 43 million tons in 2025, far lower than the 4.7% growth in 2024. Tight supply and strong import demand provide support, but risk factors cannot be ignored:

1) Poultry exports drive growth: Poultry's price competitiveness sustains strong global demand, making it the core driver of trade growth. Brazil, a traditional export powerhouse, expanded its market share in China and Mexico in the first quarter. However, after HPAI was detected in a commercial farm in mid-May, 21 countries (regions) fully suspended imports, and 14 countries implemented regional restrictions. Nevertheless, Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture stated that the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and market access is expected to resume in mid-June if no new cases occur, similar to the situation after the Newcastle disease outbreak last year.

2) Beef trade grows against the trend: Strengthened import demand drives beef trade expansion. The United States, facing limited domestic supply, has particularly strong import demand. Data from January to July shows that Brazil and Australia's beef exports increased by 13.7% and 16.6% year-on-year respectively, with significant growth in exports to China.

3) Stable pork and lamb trade: Global pork and lamb trade remains stable, reflecting an overall balanced market supply and demand. China's pork imports mainly come from Spain, Brazil, etc., with imports increasing by 1.8% year-on-year from January to July; lamb imports are dominated by New Zealand and Australia, rising by 1.6% year-on-year.

4) Regional pattern adjustment: South America, a major export region, will expand meat trade and prioritize external markets, which may reduce domestic supply in China. Except for Oceania, import demand in most regions remains strong. The cancellation of disease-related restrictions under regional trade agreements may mitigate the impact of emerging animal diseases on trade.

III. Volatile Price Increases, Restructuring of Market Supply and Demand

As global meat supply gradually tightens, international meat prices show an upward trend. FAO data reveals that the meat price index reached 127.60 in August 2025, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. Among them, beef prices have been higher than the same period last year for 22 consecutive months, lamb prices have risen for 15 consecutive months, and pork prices have achieved year-on-year growth for the first time this year.

Price increases are mainly driven by three factors: first, supply contraction in core producing countries, with slow recovery of beef and pork production capacity; second, animal diseases pushing up breeding costs, and avian influenza causing fluctuations in poultry and egg prices; third, the upgrading of global dietary structures, with accelerating urbanization in low and middle-income countries leading to sustained growth in meat consumption demand.

IV. Industry Outlook: Coexistence of Growth and Risks

The "Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034" jointly released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and FAO points out that global livestock production will grow by 16% in the next decade. Meat trade will play a key role in balancing supply and demand, with Brazil, the United States, Argentina, etc., continuing to dominate the export market, and China, India, etc., as major importers. In the short term, however, geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and the spread of animal diseases remain the main risks affecting the stability of the global meat market in 2025, requiring vigilance against sharp price fluctuations caused by supply chain disruptions.

(Note: This article is compiled and published based on content from relevant magazines and public industry information, and the copyright belongs to the original author.)